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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.