🔗 Share this article Can the Scottish team finally break the All Blacks hoodoo? The All Blacks implemented multiple adjustments to the team that overcame Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Where: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test. The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent. During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. Missing Players Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern. In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Replacement Concerns They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Historical Context Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in the previous encounter Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity. Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. Final Analysis Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.